Rural electric cooperatives serve some of the most widespread and low-density areas in the country. As the use of medium- and heavy-duty electric vehicles (MHDVs) grow, understanding where and how this new demand will materialize and impact the electric grid is more important than ever. However, many co-ops lack the data or forecasting tools to accurately plan for the impact of electric vehicles.
Several organizations have developed modeling tools that can support co-ops with load forecasting:
- RMI’s GridUp: A public tool that helps utilities forecast where and when EV-related energy demand will rise, down to the census block group level.
- EPRI’s eRoadmap: Provides detailed, location-specific forecasts of electricity demand from EVs based on regional travel behavior.
- NREL’s EVI-Pro & EVI-Pro HD: Estimates the type and scale of EV charging infrastructure needed in specific areas, using real-world travel and charging data.
- NREL’s EVI-RoadTrip: Helps design EV charging networks for long-distance travel, analyzing energy needs along routes and grid impacts.
- LBNL Framework: Offers a methodology to build long-term load forecasts that include transportation and building electrification impacts.
- ICCT Study: Provides county-level analysis of near-term EV charging needs to help co-ops identify emerging high-demand areas.
These tools can help co-ops forecast load growth, check transformer capacity, and identify the best vehicle charging locations. Many of these tools are open-access or available through partnerships, making them accessible to smaller utilities. However, they still require trained staff who can interpret the results and apply them to local planning efforts.
To prepare for this shift, co-ops can consider the following steps:
- Invest in staff training: Build internal expertise, such as load forecasting, grid planning and modeling, demand response program design, reliability and resilience planning.
- Partner with experts: Nonprofits and technical experts can provide tools, training, and support tailored to rural needs.
- Leverage vehicle fleet data and route mapping: Understanding where electrification will have the highest impact and where upgrades are most urgently needed can help co-ops plan more effectively.
The MHDV transition will bring both significant opportunities and challenges for rural co-ops. By leveraging data modeling and forecasting tools, and building the expertise to use them effectively, co-ops can make data-driven investment decisions that keep their communities powered and connected.
📄 Learn more in our full report, where we outline the challenges and opportunities, best practices, and recommendations that can help co-ops succeed.
📢 Stay tuned for upcoming blogs in this series! Each will take a deeper dive into a different area of the report.
Questions? Email us at: margarita.parra@cleanenergyworks.org and lidiya.kassahun@cleanenergyworks.org
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